While staying up all-night in your mom’s basement, battling magical orcs and pounding Cheetos sounds awesome to some people:
most of us would rather meet up with friends and do fun stuff in the real-world. Virtual worlds are dying. Instead, we use status updates and check-ins to show off how awesome our first lives are:
Mobile, social, real-world games (like Foursquare, Gowalla and MyTown) haven’t hit the mainstream because the “games” aren’t all that fun and the right incentives aren’t there. In other words, a mayorship and 10% off my next slurpee ain’t gonna cut it. I want a game with rewards like the NYC Key to the City project, which:
…invests regular New Yorkers or anyone else who happens by with the powers of magnanimity usually reserved for the city’s highest officeholder: to bestow a key to New York on a person of their choice, granting extraordinary access to generally off-limits parts of a no-entry-to-unauthorized-personnel kind of city….
The key… opens locks at two dozen locations in the five boroughs, from the baptistry at the Cathedral Church of St. John the Divine in Manhattan to a locker at Gleason’s Gym in Brooklyn to a very private and humble room (no spoilers) at the Louis Armstrong House Museum in Queens.
This is so awesome. I imagine an augmented reality future where life is a game, the world is your board, and the points you accumulate for having fun can be redeemed for new experiences. I’m thinking a mobile web powered version of The Game.
Step 1: You sign up using your Facebook ID and indicate your interest in joining different types of get-togethers: meet up for coffee, watch a movie, listen to live music, go shopping, learn how to dance etc.
Step 2: You browse through a list of awesome things to do in the city around your interests. Like Thrillist.
Step 3: You indicate that you will attend a proposed get-together, or suggest a venue for a proposed get-together, or propose a new get-together. Like Plancast.
Step 4: The system will connect you with [friends and] friends-of-friends who have also expressed an interest in attending similar get-togethers. Like Thread.
Step 5: Once a group has decided to attend a get together, they might get a surprise group deal offer from the venue. Like Living Social.
Step 6: Users can be designated hosts for venues, activities, or even cities. Like Foursquare.
After some debate we both felt that although this app had all the overhyped elements of group purchasing, game mechanics and FB/Foursquare APIs, it wasn’t “the one.”
What do you think? How can we leverage the mobile web to create fun, real world experiences? Do you know of other companies like SCVNGR and Geocaching doing cool stuff in this space?
Editor’s Note: I’m almost embarrassed to say I actually had to play Frontierville and Farmville to write this post. These games send notifications constantly and I wasn’t entirely comfortable with all my friends knowing how my pigs were doing. Therefore, I had to go undercover and create a new FB account under my Indian alter ego: Amit Kumar
Zynga has experienced explosive growth since it’s inception in 2007. They’re absolutely crushing it with:
How did Zynga become such a profit generating, user acquiring, viral monster? Here’s a few strategies that worked for Zynga which you can apply to your business:
1. Build sharing as an integral part of the product
At every point Zynga prompts users to sign up for updates and send notifications (many times crossing the line) through: fan pages/likes, invites, shares, bookmarks, stream publishing, in game messaging, and email notifications. In fact they’re so darn good at notifying ”Facebook had to change their notification policies
Before you even get started playing you’re prompted to:
- Become a Fan/Like (so they can push updates through your news stream)
- Invite your friends (pro tip: make it look like it’s required)
- Share this page on your news stream
- They again remind you right at the start of the game:
Sharing is not an afterthought limited to an invite section, it’s an integral part of the experience. In fact the more you share and interact with others, the more you are rewarded.
2. Create ways to elevate a users status/social capital
One way to think about social capital is we’re all in a certain bucket with each other, and the lowest bucket is maybe you’ll accept a friend request, and the highest bucket is you’ll come over and help me move, or pick me up at the airport,” Pincus told the Wired Business Conference Tuesday. “The question is, is there something we can do to help you move buckets?
While it’s cool (sort of) that I level’d up in Frontierville, I’m not gonna tell my friends about it, but… if I can share with them some of the points I’ve accumulated then that’s a lot more compelling. It no longer feels like spam, but instead that I’m helping them:
Applying this to a web business don’t just give a discount to the user who invites 5 of her friends to the service, let her pass on the discount to her friends (that’s something you really wanna share).
3. Assume you are gonna get it wrong at first
Don’t assume that your product is “the one.” Zynga does a great job of experimenting and making decisions based on data. I love this video of Pincus speaking at Stanford:
Towards the end he is asked if he could go back and share a lesson with himself when he was CEO of Tribes what would it be.
If I could do it all over again, I would have made Tribe a platform to test many ideas of social networking. We tried just one. Oh my god what the hell was I thinking? Just one? At our company we have several hundred tests going on every day and in every game. I would’ve done is made Tribe a platform to test every configuration
This is echo’d by others at Zynga:
Analysis, analysis, analysis. It’s been like that. [In traditional development] It’s just like, “Oh, it’s going to be a great experience,” and this and that. We’ll spend two years down a ship cycle, and, “Oops, I was wrong!”
So now it’s like, “If we do this, I think we can measure that, and here’s how we’re going to measure and tweak it later down the road…” We are an incredibly analytical organization, so we track just about everything. It’s the secret sauce behind all that stuff. There’s a lot of mathematics that go into it
That’s the magic behind what we do. Certain things we do will work, and others won’t. You try new ones, and A, B, C, D, E, F, G testing constant. (Source)
Several hundred A, B, C, D, E, F, G tests going on daily… sweet bejeezus.
4. “Ghetto” test
You don’t actually have to build it to find out if it works.
In the last 5 minutes of the video above Pincus is asked what’s the best way to do market research. His answer – “Ghetto Test”. If someone wants to build, let’s say, a hospital simulator he creates an FB ad that says, “Ever wanted to run your own hospital?” which leads to a survey (or if it’s really ghetto a 404 page).
All Zynga has to do is track CTR and compare it to previous historical rates to get a pretty good idea of demand. I’ve heard a lot of people test demand for a product idea, and A/B test marketing copy using Adwords (you don’t care about the goal, just the intent).
Focusing on products that don’t work funnels attention and energy away from ones that do. Even if you’ve made substantial investments know when it’s time to let go.
We’ve actually made investments into some innovative games that were incredibly hardcore. If you look at Guild of Heroes, for example, we did roll that out. It was a version of Diablo built in Flash, and it wasn’t successful, and we didn’t support it any longer. (Source)
6. Create unexpected moments of delight
Surprise your users through game mechanics, humorous copy, badges, and easter eggs. If you make them smile, they’ll tell they’re much more likely to come back and tell their friends.
One of the really fun and successful features we added is what we call the ‘Lonely Cow’ feature,” said Skaggs. “You can help find it a home, then somebody claims it. You’ll get a brown cow instead of the white cow you had before. Then you milk the brown cow and you get chocolate milk! That’s a ‘moment of delight,’ totally unexpected but cool (Source).
7. Leverage your size to cross promote like crazy
The best customer for one of your new products is an existing customer. If you liked Farmville you’ll looooooooove Frontierville.
They also have a banner at the top of their games calling out the rest of their properties:
Only by leveraging their existing user base were they able to get 100,000 users on Frontierville’s first day.
8. Maximize Trends
Pincus says the web is about repeatable formulas and once you find something that works, it doesn’t break for a long, long time. Think of LOLcats, rickrolling and Google. Nothing that Zynga does is new, but they’ve executed on it tremendously well. They’ve found a formula that works and are bangin’ out hits at an astouning rate.
We’re looking to develop mobile versions of the product suite I’m working on. I know nothing about the mobile web and had some really basic questions. Below is some research I did in Q&A format:
In North America about 1.3% of all pageviews come from mobile browsers. This is expected to grow a whole percentage point by the end of 2010.
Globally, Quantcast predicts growth from .95% to 1.8% in 2010.
Answers to the next set of questions from Admob Feb 2010 Mobile Report (please note this data is from AdMob’s network only and may not be indicative of the entire mobile web)
Q. Do smartphones generate more traffic then feature phones globally?
A. Mobile Traffic Share: 48% smartphones, 35% feature phones, 18% other (basically iPod Touch)
Q. What smartphone OS is most popular globally?
A. 50% of all Smartphone traffic comes from iPhones (wow!), 24% Android, 18% Symbian, 4% RIM (surprisingly low)
Q. What featurephone is most popular globally?
A. 32% Samsung, 24% Nokia, 12% SonyEriccson, 10% Motorola
Q. What countries have the highest percentage of mobile web requests?
A. US (50%), India (5.9%), UK (4.2%), Indonesia (3.7%), Canada (2.9%)
Answers to the next set of questions all from AdMob SE Asia Report (please note this data is from AdMob’s network only and may not be indicative of the entire mobile web)
Q. In India are smartphones or feature phones more popular for accessing the mobile web?
A. Smartphones – 66.3%, featurephones – 33.4%
Q. What are the most popular Smartphones in India?
Q. What are the most popular featurephones in India?
So it’s 2010 and according to the 80′s movies I was obsessed with as a kid we should have hoverboards, flying cars, sexy robots, and violent but thrilling reality tv gameshows.
I can forgive scientists for failing to deliver on the important stuff, but at the very least, they should’ve come up with a really easy way for me to stay up to date on the music I love.
Here’s my problem: I love music, but downloading it is a pain in the ass. Many times:
It’s not the right version (terrible sounding live album or kung-fu panda in croatian)
The quality sucks (camcorder rip)
It’s not tagged properly
It’s not what you are looking for (self-promoting rappers, porn or just plain weird)
It’s super slow (maybe that’s just cause I’m in India)
It’s “illegal”
So in order to satisfy my cravings for new music without the hassle, I buy albums on iTunes. The issue is most of the time I have no idea what to buy. The only way for me to stay up to date is to manually browsing the iTunes store, explicitly ask my friends for recommendations, listen to internet radio and write down the tracks I like or browsing hype machine, pandora and other music sites and just sampling music. That’s is a lot of work and I’m really lazy (which is why I don’t buy a lot of music).
I don’t want to go out and look for music, movies, games, books and apps I want stuff I like to find me.
Here’s what I’m thinking: create a service that lets you “follow” your favorite digital content: music, movies, games, apps, and books and receive notifications any time new related content is released:
Phase 1 – Music over Twitter:
Put in your favorite artist, band or genre (similar to iLike or Pandora)
Decide how and how often you’d like to receive notifications (as soon as it happens, daily, weekly) and how (tweets, @mentions, direct message)
Link to a summary page which shows an activity feed (new tracks, alubms, remixes, videos, etc…) for the music you have decided you like
Link to iTunes for affiliate sales
Phase 2 – Other content: Movies (Actor, Director, Genre), Games (Game, Genre, Studio), Books (Author, Publisher, Genre) and Apps
Phase 3 – Recommendations: Tie up with services like Netflix and Pandora to start making recommendations on content you may like
Phase 4 – Other Notifications: Email, SMS, Facebook, etc…
Phase 5 – Incentivize users to repost content, by sharing revenue
Great Scott! Music Hack Day is coming to SF in a few weeks. Someone please build this, I’d use it.
As confirmed by TechCrunch, Google today announced that they’ve bough Aardvark for $50 million – brilliant move by the Goog. I’ll get to the why after a little background.
Google still dominates the most lucrative percentage of marketing dollars spent on the web:
But recently they seem scared. Google is a one trick pony, with the Adwords serving as their main source of revenue. They’ve tried over and over to replicat it’s success but have failed miserably with Youtube, Dodgeball, Jaiku, Lively, Orkut and Wave. I visited Google’s New York offices in Jan 2007. The most memorable moment (besides the organic salmon burgers in the cafeteria) was when one of the engineers said that Google was the only site in the world, whose goal was to minimize time spent on it. At the time I was blown away – “Give the people what they want.”
Fast forward to today – for most searches related to products, services or experiential recommendations – Google fails:
Purchasing Aardvark is a brilliant (third or fourth) play into the social arena. With Buzz just released, Google now has a captive audience of 176mil (in Gmail) to test, position and improve social search (before it’s too late). People don’t want to be sold to, but will gladly buy products based on recommendations by people they trust. The line between advertising and content is blurring. The key is being able to monitize recommendations (companies would gladly pay 2% of a product’s price for a sale).
What will be interesting to see is if either Facebook, Twitter or Google is able to do it alone (doubtful – but maybe FB), whether some big-time M&A will happen (Goog buys Twitter), or whether they will be forced to open up to each other, each find their respective niches, and continue to compete on the fringe (likely). What do you think, with Buzz + Aardvark will they be able to achieve monetizable, real-time, social search before FB and Twitter?
There’s no doubt that Google Search is a great product, but aside from some cosmetic changes in how results are displayed there hasn’t been any major innovation in search in the last few years (aright, Goggles is pretty awesome):
There are a number of questions which Google fails to answer:
“where’s the best bagel in new york?”
“what’s a cheap, clean, centrally located hotel in bangkok”
“which DSLR camera should I buy?”
In the cases above, you’re most likely to get SEO-optimized aggregator/review site whose primary motivation is affiliate sales. And forget about finding anything usable to:
“what’s everyone up to this weekend?”
“should I get a tattoo?”
“is business school right for me”
Increasingly, I turn to Twitter and Facebook for these types of questions:
Aardvark is another really nice product that tries to answer these experiential/recommendation type of questions. It’s easy to use (via a chat bot) and gets quick and solid responses. The same question got me three responses within 10 min (here’s two):
(From Rakesh R./24/M/Arlington,US, Re: **cameras**
go for canon 50D with a kit lens to start with . Your body is excellent but lens is OK types. u can always improve on ur lens whne u know what u needhttp://vark.com/z/b41bf (Amazon: Canon EOS 50D)
(From Sam A./M/Dubai,UnitedArabEmirates, Re: **cameras**
Well the best bet would be to start looking at the more popular brands:
Canon and Nikon. Some people also swear by Olympus and Leica (the latter
being seriously expensive), and even Sony. I’d stay away from Sony because
cameras is not their real bread and butter (though I have read some good
reviews regarding their Alpha series). Now I wouldn’t recommend sticking to
the popular brands because they’re better or provide the best value for
money, but rather for things beyond that: availability of accessories,
lenses, repair options, etc. I personally just purchased a Canon D7 and it’s
a really great camera. Though a little on the pricey side, it provides great
value for money. Things like high continuous shooting rate, HD video, etc.
This site helps you actually buy one: http://reviews.cnet.com/dslr-buying-guide/
This website will be really helpful in doing some comparisons: http://snapsort.com/
Enjoy!
Imagine if I could aggregate this data, slice and dice according to my tastes (i.e. 2nd degree relationships within NYC who have bought a camera in the last 6 weeks), compare prices and actually buy this thing from a single application? This is a game changer that could be a devastating blow to Google SEM and forever change the way we buy products and services (though Google’s smart and they’re workin’ on it) . Facebook ::nudge nudge wink wink:: I’m lookin’ at you…
My favorite quote from the excellent video by @equalman (posted below) is:
We no longer search for the news, the news finds us…
In the near future we will no longer search for products and services they will find us
Increasingly though, it’s not just individuals who will be turning to social tools to answer tough questions:
There’s a new tool that can help companies predict sales for the coming weeks, or decide whether to increase inventories or put items on sale in certain stores.
Social data from Facebook, Twitter and the like combined with traditional CRMs will allow you to keep track of buzz, transactions and brand loyalty/sentiment, letting you answer questions like:
What are people saying about my product right now?
How has the perception of my brand changed recently and in what direction is it trending?
Geographically where is my biggest, rapidly emerging and diminishing customers?
Who are my biggest evangelists, in what demographic do they fall in, where are they located?
Who are my biggest naysayers, how can I change their perception?
What is the perception of my product vs. my competitors?
What product features do my (potential) customers want?
Where is my next potential biggest growth market?
What are the trending (in both directions) topics in my industry?
Social CRM is totally hot right now and an important trend to watch this year:
There’s the old project management saying: good, cheap and fast… pick two.
In the business world I’ve noticed that three characteristics generally determine success: smart, hard working and charismatic. Sure, the definition of success widely varies but for the purposes of this post, I’ll define it as, “the ability to achieve lofty goals.”
If you have one of these characteristics above you can get by fairly well. The smart, lazy, boring gal who manages to muddle away at her corporate job, she’s doin’ alright.
If you’ve got two of the above characteristics you are in the top quartile of successful people. The dogged, friendly sales guy is makin’ it rain but won’t get to CEO.
But the ladies and gents who really crush it, are the ones who are intelligent, relentless and likable. While smarts can’t generally be picked up, the other two can be cultivated. Work harder then everyone else, make sure you genuinely care about the people you work with (never sacrifice relationships for individuals project deliverables) and you’ll get to where you wanna be.
Business models on the web are undergoing a massive transformation. Originally mimicking the print industry (advertising revenues based on circulation numbers), we are now only beginning to explore real value adding, revenue generating opportunities which leverage the real-time, social, location-aware, collaborative nature of the web. While there are companies who are strategically concerned with building a profitable enterprise from the getgo (like 37signals, Zynga), there are many others who are concerned with building great products, attracting a huge user base and figuring out the home-run revenue streams later (most notably: Google, FB, Twitter).
There’s a ton of factors that come into play when choosing which route to take (do you have money? can you take the risk? are there obvious monetization opportunities now? by forgoing these are you putting yourself in a better position to capitalize on larger opportunities down the road?), but let’s assume for a sec you are in the user base game. How many user’s do you need to actually make some money. Here’s some back of the envelope stats (please take these with a grain of salt, some numbers here are estimates):
There’s a big difference between market cap, investment round valuation and acquisition price, for the purposes of this exercise I combined them. There’s also a difference between registered users, active users, monthly unique visitors, etc… I needed someway to make comparisons, I’m smushing stuff up to draw comparisons.
I should probably add a few more companies like Skype, Paypal, eBay, Amazon, etc… to make this less search and social network focused.
Google crushes it $12/user/year damn dude…
YouTube founders are extremely lucky to get that kind of exit
Valuations and revenues don’t seem to be related (surprise)
Across all these companies the average revenue per user is: $2.87 and average valuation per user is: $35.62. Want to be a billion dollar company? You’ll need approximately 28mil users (I’m kidding… sort of)
What do you think? Is it better to play the userbase game or find ways to monetize immediately? Any way to make the above numbers more accurate? Any other conclusions you can draw from this data? Would love to hear from you…
Last week I gave a few training sessions to new joinees in our company covering Social Media, Online Advertising and Analytics. From talks I’ve had with new joinees, I’ve found this information isn’t covered in college/graduate coursework. I’m planning on turning this into a longer course and teaching at one of the business schools here.
Part 2: Twitter, Facebook and Social Data Portability
Recommended prior reading:
Razorfish Consumer Experience Report – Meet the Connected Consumer, Advertising as a Service, How Micro-Interactions Are Changing the Way We Communicate Online, How Tiny Applications Are Remaking the Future of the Web (approx 30 pages)
As a course, I would structure this a bit differently, and some of the issues glossed over would receive their own dedicated section. For a longer course I would also include topics like Monetization Strategies for the Web, Data Driven decision making using Analytics (A/B Testing, Optimizing landing pages, SEO), The Future (Convergence, Social Ads, The Importance of Real-Time, The concept of life streaming). Any thoughts? I will flesh out a course outline and post some notes online soon…
Paris Hilton
sweet bejeezus.
